Commentary: Inflation Is the Reason Joe Biden Is So Unpopular

Joe Biden

We’ve paid much attention to President Biden’s flagging job approval here, in part because it tends to be a strong predictor of how an election will turn out. Biden is marching into this election season as likely the least popular president to face the voters since Herbert Hoover. While he may yet be saved by the fact that he is facing off against Donald Trump, who brings his own baggage to the table, it’s an ominous indicator.

At the same time, the economy is running hot. Growth is over 3%, unemployment is under 4%, and inflation has fallen from its peak. So why the seeming paradox of an unpopular president in a time of strong economic growth, especially when the strength of the economy is itself a traditional predictor of presidential job approval?

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Businesses Are Getting Crushed ‘Beneath the Surface’ of Economy, New Figures Show

In recent years, mid-sized companies between $100 million and $750 million in yearly revenue have been increasingly struggling compared to large businesses, taking the brunt of poor economic conditions and high interest rates, according to asset manager Marblegate.

From 2019 to the end of 2022, mid-sized companies had a 24 percent drop in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) compared to public companies, which had their earnings rise 18 percent, according to a study by Marblegate acquired by Axios. The discrepancy between large and midsized companies is in part due to the increased cost of credit for smaller businesses, which are more affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, with the federal funds rate currently being placed in a range of 5.25 percent and 5.50 percent, the highest point in 22 years.

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