Commentary: High Gold Price Points to Sustained Inflation

Gold Bars in vault

The economy looms large in the minds of most people and not simply because it is an election year. It affects us directly. We spend a lot of our waking hours at work, and our jobs are often connected to the welfare of families and children. With everything being more expensive, getting a toe hold on mere middle-class status is harder now than it was for older generations. Many people are slipping down a rung or three.

In addition to long-term trends like the decline of manufacturing and the cut-throat financialization of corporate America, unique recent events loom large. COVID lockdowns, soon followed by the government money giveaway—PPP loans, augmented unemployment benefits, rent relief, and other stimulus plans—disrupted our routines and affected the entire economy. While these measures likely prevented a deep recession, the shutdowns ruined a lot of businesses, and the various stimulus funds ended up unleashing inflation.

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Commentary: Unemployment Up Another 760,000 Since December 2022 as Unemployment Rate Jumps to 3.9 Percent

Don’t look now, but U.S. labor markets appear to be churning in the wrong direction, as the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9 percent in February, and the unemployment level hit a new high for this cycle at almost 6.5 million, up 760,000 from its low this cycle of 5.7 million in Dec. 2022, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Government Jobs Continue to Swell Under Biden as Unemployment Ticks Up

Team Work at Office

The U.S. set another new record for the total number of government jobs in February, even as overall unemployment ticks up, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The government added 52,000 positions in February, around the average gain per month seen in the last year, totaling 23,180,000, according to the BLS. The U.S. economy added 275,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, far higher than expectations of 200,000, but unemployment shot up from 3.7% to 3.9%.

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Job Gains Surge for Another Month as Unemployment Ticks Up

Office Work

The U.S. added 275,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday.

Economists anticipated that the country would add 200,000 jobs in February compared to the 353,000 that were added in January, and that the unemployment rate would remain at 3.7%, according to Reuters. The job gains were announced two days after Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, told the House Financial Services Committee in its semi-annual monetary policy report that he does not believe that there is evidence for a recession, meaning rate cuts could be on the horizon.

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Commentary: Inflation Is the Reason Joe Biden Is So Unpopular

Joe Biden

We’ve paid much attention to President Biden’s flagging job approval here, in part because it tends to be a strong predictor of how an election will turn out. Biden is marching into this election season as likely the least popular president to face the voters since Herbert Hoover. While he may yet be saved by the fact that he is facing off against Donald Trump, who brings his own baggage to the table, it’s an ominous indicator.

At the same time, the economy is running hot. Growth is over 3%, unemployment is under 4%, and inflation has fallen from its peak. So why the seeming paradox of an unpopular president in a time of strong economic growth, especially when the strength of the economy is itself a traditional predictor of presidential job approval?

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Businesses Are Getting Crushed ‘Beneath the Surface’ of Economy, New Figures Show

In recent years, mid-sized companies between $100 million and $750 million in yearly revenue have been increasingly struggling compared to large businesses, taking the brunt of poor economic conditions and high interest rates, according to asset manager Marblegate.

From 2019 to the end of 2022, mid-sized companies had a 24 percent drop in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) compared to public companies, which had their earnings rise 18 percent, according to a study by Marblegate acquired by Axios. The discrepancy between large and midsized companies is in part due to the increased cost of credit for smaller businesses, which are more affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, with the federal funds rate currently being placed in a range of 5.25 percent and 5.50 percent, the highest point in 22 years.

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