Commentary: The Emerging Trump Coalition

Donald J. Trump

Will Hispanics and young voters help propel former President Donald Trump to a second term in the White House? New polling suggests so, strongly.

But first some background on the larger macro shifts in the electorate and party identification: Bigger picture, the populist-nationalist revolt continues to reshape politics in America in ways that are systemic and, likely, generational. This political tectonic shift is transforming the Republican Party into a party of workers, claiming whole demographic groups that were formerly considered the political provenance of the Democrats.

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Commentary: Biden Losing Support of Young Men Due to Border Crisis

Illegal Immigrants

The latest Harvard Youth Poll reveals President Joe Biden has lost significant ground with voters under thirty compared to four years ago, with a 20-point decline among young men. While young Americans give Biden low marks on foreign policy and economic issues including inflation, housing, and the job market, immigration is a leading factor in young people’s departure from Democrats. 

Biden currently leads Trump by thirteen percentage points (50 percent to 37 percent) among registered voters under thirty in the Harvard Youth Poll, a slightly higher margin than he has led by in other recent polls that include young people as a subset.

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Trump Gains on Biden with Young Voters: Poll

Young Trump Supporters

Former President Donald Trump has lowered President Joe Biden’s lead in support from people under 30 compared to four years ago, according to a poll released Thursday.

During the 2020 presidential election, Biden led Trump by 23% among support from young people under 30, and held a 30-point advantage among likely young voters. In the latest survey from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, however, Trump came in just eight points behind Biden among young adults between the ages of 18 and 29, with Biden leading 45% to Trump’s 37%.

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