by Mary Lou Masters
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five crucial battleground states for head-to-head matchups ahead of a November rematch, and has gained ground among black and Hispanic voters, a Monday poll found.
Trump is ahead of Biden by 13 points among likely voters in Nevada, as well as by nine points in Georgia, six points in Arizona, three points in Pennsylvania and one point in Wisconsin, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College survey. Biden is only leading in one state, Michigan, with a 47 percent to 45 percent margin.
Additionally, the poll found that Trump has narrowed the margin with Biden among two crucial voting blocs Democrats typically win by large margins — black and Hispanic individuals. Across the six swing states, Biden is leading Trump 70 percent to 18 percent among black voters, as well as by 47 percent to 42 percent among Hispanic voters.
The margins are smaller than those from the NYT/Siena College’s previous poll of the same battleground states, as well as in the exit polling from the 2020 election. Biden won black and Hispanic voters by 75 and 33 points, respectively, according to Edison Research.
When independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included in the poll, Trump’s leads grow in Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania, while the former president’s margin stays the same in Wisconsin and drops by one point in Georgia. Biden’s advantage in Michigan jumps from one to three points.
Trump narrowly won Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, but lost them all to Biden the following cycle. Nevada went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
While Trump boasted leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Republican Senate candidates did not, according to the survey. Democratic Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown were tied at 41 percent; Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led Republican David McCormick by two points; Democratic Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego led Republican Kari Lake by three points; Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin led Republican Eric Hovde by seven points.
The RealClearPolitics average for a 2024 head-to-head matchup with Biden shows Trump leading by 1.2 points nationally, with the former president ahead in seven swing states. Trump is 6.2 points ahead in Nevada, 5.4 points in North Carolina, 5.2 points ahead in Arizona, 4.6 points ahead in Georgia, two points ahead in Pennsylvania, 0.8 points ahead in Michigan and 0.6 points ahead in Wisconsin.
The NYT/Siena College poll surveyed 4,097 likely general election voters between April 28 and May 9 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percent. Individually, the survey yielded margins of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent in Pennsylvania; 4.2 percent in Arizona; 4.5 percent in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin; and 4.6 percent in Georgia.
Neither the Trump nor Biden campaign immediately responded to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.
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Mary Lou Masters is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.
Photo “Donald Trump” by Daniel Scavino Jr..
